Never in over 40 years in and around small open boats, and nowhere in my vast library of small boat magazines and books, have I ever heard of a SINGLE case of lightning striking a small boat while in use on the water. Not once. Neither in open water nor close ashore.
OF COURSE it could happen, but I think the odds are similar to being struck by lightning while undertaking ANY sort of outdoor activity. Which aren't zero but are very low. Whenever I'm cruising in a small boat, I'm going to moor someplace protected, probably in a cove surrounded by trees or alongside boats with masts that are higher than mine. I figure that at that point, my chances are probably better than someone playing golf. And even if the boat does get hit, you might just get a tremendous scare.
I've had personal experience with three cases.
1. A CLC Jimmy Skiff was stored in a backyard here in Annapolis with its mast stepped. Not on the water, nobody aboard. The impact blew the mast step out of the boat. No one was hurt, and we still have the dislodged chunk of the hull hanging on our wall here. The boat was repaired.
2. I was helping with the post-strike survey of a large yacht. Basically the lightning had roached the electronics. No one hurt. There were several very small "exit wounds" in the fiberglass hull of the ~45-foot sailboat, none even large enough to have caused a leak.
3. I was working at a marina when a violent Chesapeake thunderstorm swept through. I retreated to my car. A sailboat a few hundred yards away in a slip was hit. No one was aboard. It started a small fire in the boat's electrical panel, which went out before the fire engines arrived. Other than electrical damage I'm not sure what else happened.
Speaking of larger boats, I'm in the camp that thinks that adding "lightning protection," in the form of an aerial on the mast wired to grounding plates on the hull, is about as useful as the anti-elephant powder I've been spreading in my front yard all these years.
Jerry Powlas, of Good Old Boat Magazine, had the best writing on the subject of sailboat lightning strikes I've ever found, in the aftermath of a strike on his own boat. (The article itself doesn't seem to be online, alas.)
My two favorite pull-quotes, vis-a-vis lightning protection for a small sailboat:
"My concept of conductors and insulators was not useful at the very high voltages involved. I suspect when you are dealing with a voltage so high that the strike has already come thousands of feet though air, there may be no resistors, just conductors of varying resistance."
In other words, if lightning chooses YOU, your patented lightning protection isn't worth a bucket of spit.
And:
"I will decline comment on acts of God, which may be an unfortunate term. We were on board when the lightning hit. Actually we were showering. There is an arrogance in that, but we survived.
It is very difficult to separate true scientific understanding from promotional claims and the folklore. I suspect many of the cures and fixes work because the boats are not hit. Anything works if the boat is not hit. Perhaps very little works if it is hit. I am convinced that if the boat is hit, no matter how the boat is configured, all or almost all of the electronics will be destroyed."
I'd call that a mic-drop on the subject.